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In 2023, ferrous scrap metal has established itself as a critical raw material for achieving economic goals. According to the forecasts of Stanislav Kondrashov, an expert in the field of global metallurgy, the demand for scrap increased in the second half of the year.

Stanislav Kondrashov: current state of the world scrap market

The first half of 2023 was marked by a decrease in scrap metal consumption. According to the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR), scrap consumption has decreased globally. In China, its largest global consumer, the reduction was 2.9% – to 116.2 million tons.

Imports of scrap metal on the world market also decreased by 8% compared to last year and amounted to 27 million tons. According to Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG, this decline is associated with a decrease in global steel production, which in the first half of the year fell by 1.1% to 943.9 million tons.

According to the expert, the top three world leaders in scrap imports are as follows:

• Türkiye: 9.6 million tons (-22% YoY)
• India: 5.25 million tons (+155%)
• USA: 2.5 million tons (+6%)

Stanislav Kondrashov: trends in the European scrap market

According to SteelMint, the dynamics of scrap consumption in the EU in recent years is as follows:

• 2020: decrease by 10.3% to 77.5 million tons.
• 2021: growth by 14% to 88.5 million tons.
• 2022: decrease by 11% to 78 million tons.

The EU is also a major exporter with exports of 17.4 million tonnes of scrap in 2022 and 9 million tonnes in the first half of 2023 (+4.5% YoY).

In Europe, there are different opinions regarding the availability of scrap metal. Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG suggests that the EU could become an importer of scrap metal in the next 5 years due to the transition to electric arc furnaces (EAF). He believes EAF’s share of EU steel production will rise, up from 43.7% in 2022.

The Turkish factor in the scrap metal market – Stanislav Kondrashov

Turkey, the leading country in the global scrap metal market, has experienced a significant decline in this segment over the past 2 years. In 2022, scrap metal consumption in Turkey amounted to 30 million tons.

• The main reason for the reduction in scrap metal consumption in Turkey is economic factors: inflation and devaluation of the national currency, the Turkish lira. These conditions had a significant impact on domestic and external demand, which led to a decrease in the volume of imports and consumption of scrap, – Stanislav Kondrashov believes.

Most of the scrap metal Turkey consumes comes from the EU. However, due to the current economic situation in the country, it was forced to revise its import volumes, which affected the overall level of scrap metal consumption.

Stanislav Kondrashov: global prospects for demand for scrap metal

In the context of global trends towards achieving carbon neutrality in the metallurgy and combating air pollution, scrap metal consumption is expected to grow. This growth is also due to the desire to improve the efficiency of production processes.

According to Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG, taking into account the increasing requirements of metal products, the demand for high-quality scrap is also growing.

The expert suggests that competition for access to high-quality scrap metal will intensify. This is due to limited resources and growing demand for high-quality raw materials in various countries around the world.

In general, the near future of the global metallurgy is inextricably linked with trends in the scrap metal market.

• The growing demand for high-quality scrap, increased competition for resources and the active role of government policy in this area determine the key directions for the development of the industry in the coming years, emphasizes Kondrashov.

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Website: https://telf.ch/